Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s political fortunes took another serious hit Monday night, as his Liberal Party lost a long-held seat in Montreal’s LaSalle–Émard–Verdun district to the Bloc Québécois. The defeat marks the second time in just three months that the Liberals have lost what was considered a "safe" seat, sparking renewed pressure on Trudeau to step aside as leader of the party ahead of the next general election.
Bloc Québécois candidate Louis-Philippe Sauvé emerged victorious in the closely contested by-election, narrowly beating Liberal candidate Laura Palestini. Sauvé secured 28% of the vote, while Palestini trailed with 27.2%. This seat had been a Liberal stronghold for decades, even represented by former Prime Minister Paul Martin.
Justin Trudeau just pulled the "American Psycho" walk scene, with a camera guy in front of him and everything. Absolute narcissist. pic.twitter.com/qAjDXDwMUd
— Ian Miles Cheong (@stillgray) September 17, 2024
The loss is particularly notable because Trudeau himself did little to campaign locally, a stark contrast to the efforts of his opponents.
The defeat adds to growing concerns within the Liberal Party about its future, as Trudeau's popularity continues to plummet. Opinion polls have shown the party trailing the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, by significant margins. In the last year, Trudeau’s approval ratings have stagnated around 20%, raising doubts about his ability to lead the party to another election victory.
Yesterday, I filmed my own entry into the House of Commons.
Volume up, and listen to me respond to the question "how are you doing?" by saying "good stuff!".
I am such a narcissist, that I don't even pay attention to others when the cameras are rolling. pic.twitter.com/s4ONnYwIvC
— Justin Trudeau's Ego (@Trudeaus_Ego) September 17, 2024
The Montreal by-election was seen as a litmus test for Trudeau’s leadership. Just three months ago, the Liberals lost another safe seat in Toronto during a separate by-election, which led to internal party criticism of Trudeau's leadership. Despite these losses, Trudeau has remained adamant that he will not resign, insisting he will lead the party into the next general election.
This election cycle has been marked by increased competition from the Bloc Québécois, a party advocating for Quebec's independence. The Bloc’s victory in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun indicates a growing shift in voter sentiment in Quebec, where the Conservatives have traditionally struggled to gain traction. The Bloc's win also highlights a broader dissatisfaction with Trudeau's government across the province.
In response to the defeat, Liberal insiders have expressed frustration over how the party handled the nomination process in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun. Trudeau handpicked Palestini as the Liberal candidate, sidelining other potential candidates who had expressed interest in running. This move angered some within the party and further alienated voters.
Political analysts suggest that the defeat could embolden Trudeau’s critics within his own party. Lori Turnbull, a Canadian political expert, noted that the loss "is another nail in the coffin" for Trudeau’s leadership, with many Liberals privately voicing concerns about the party's future under his guidance.
